Leading or Just Talking the Talk? Exploring the Landscape of Global North Diplomacy Amid Trump's Bold Choices
By Bruno S. Sergi and Mona Pearl
President Donald Trump's first hundred days have been marked by direct engagement, economic leverage, and challenges to diplomatic norms. He has returned to an old playbook of interventionist policies, freezing aid funds, deal-making, tariffs, and sanctions. The U.S.–China trade war is part of Trump's strategy to renegotiate economic terms and apply pressure. There is criticism of NATO, a firm stance on China, and the potential for the United States to withdraw from NATO if allies fail to meet financial obligations.
President Trump has made bold foreign policy decisions, steering the country toward a more unilateral "league of its own." This shift coincides with the Global South's increasing influence and coalition-building, highlighting a leadership vacuum in the Global North as the United States embraces an ‘America First’ strategy focused on national self-interest over global leadership.
Trump's foreign policy frequently sidesteps traditional conflict resolution frameworks, preferring tactics such as suspending USAID funds and leveraging high-pressure diplomacy over conventional mediation efforts. The administration’s unilateralism has strained alliances, as seen in Trump’s criticisms of NATO and the United Nations, while its economic protectionism, exemplified by tariffs on Chinese goods, has created trade tensions and invited retaliatory measures from other nations. His administration emphasized military strength and quick responses, using assertiveness as a bargaining tool. His transactional diplomacy prioritized bilateral deals, leading him to question NATO's value unless allies met specific defense spending targets, reflecting a preference for conditional cooperation. The unifying theme of this unilateral agenda, prioritizing direct dealings and conditional cooperation over broad multilateral commitments, has far-reaching consequences for international relations. This approach, which reshaped US engagement with allies and adversaries alike, fundamentally challenges and undermines existing global frameworks and fostering a culture of self-interest over collective consensus. As a result, Trump's doctrine may alter the relationship between the Global South and the Global North. His foreign policy focuses on nationalism and protectionism, encouraging skepticism toward multilateral agreements and potentially widening economic disparities, while the Global South's emphasis on self-sufficiency may impede its integration into global value chains. Additionally, Trump's distrust of international organizations may result in more transactional, bilateral relationships, making foreign aid and trade agreements less predictable.
USAID Fund Freezing and Its Global Implications
Some of President Trump's foreign policy objectives include controlling global maritime chokepoints, countering China's influence, and ensuring U.S. dominance in global trade routes and naval mobility. One of Trump's most notable foreign policy strategies is his willingness to withhold or freeze USAID spending to achieve political or strategic objectives. Using economic assistance as leverage is not new in American foreign policy. During the Cold War, U.S. aid was frequently contingent on ideological alignment with the United States. In 2019, Trump’s decision to freeze aid to Ukraine became a central issue in his first impeachment trial. While the justification for this action was debated, its global implications were significant: it reinforced the precedent that U.S. financial assistance was conditional on alignment with American policy objectives. This approach was not limited to Ukraine; Trump also reduced aid to Central American countries, tying it to their cooperation in stemming migration to the United States, pressed NATO allies to increase defense spending, and threatened to reduce UN contributions.
The implications of this approach for U.S. global leadership are profound. While Trump secured short-term diplomatic gains and reinforced American negotiating power, the United States also signaled unpredictability to allies and partners. By making financial assistance more overtly conditional than it had been in the recent past, Trump forced recipient countries to reassess their dependency on American aid and sometimes seek alternative partnerships with China and Russia. Trump's policies, particularly his cuts to foreign aid, have led Latin American nations like Mexico and Venezuela to strengthen ties with China and Russia. China's Belt and Road Initiative has attracted countries seeking infrastructure investment, while Russia, in response to Western isolation, has expanded its influence through energy deals and military cooperation with Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
Intervention in the Middle East
The U.S. participation in the Israel-Hamas negotiations marks yet another significant shift in U.S. foreign policy. By directly engaging Hamas to secure the release of American hostages, Trump broke with the long-standing U.S. policy of avoiding direct contact with the group. His ultimatum to Hamas highlights his forceful approach, prioritizing American lives while navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. This direct engagement reflects Trump's tendency to achieve specific goals, often disregarding traditional diplomatic norms. President Trump's approach to the Israel-Iran conflict has been marked by bold rhetoric coupled with strategic restraint. He publicly supports Israel's right to defend itself and brokered the Abraham Accords, normalizing relations between Israel and Arab nations. Trump's recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the relocation of the U.S. embassy showcased a bold U.S. foreign policy. While these actions are controversial, they demonstrate a shift in global assertiveness. U.S. foreign policy is transforming due to evolving alliances and leadership styles. Trump's approach, criticized for its lack of multilateralism, presents both opportunities and challenges, raising concerns about long-term diplomatic stability. Future administrations should carefully assess these strategies.
During his first presidency, Trump brokered the Abraham Accords, a series of normalization agreements between Israel and Arab nations. The recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem underscored Trump's assertive foreign policy, despite controversy. This shift reflects a broader transformation in U.S. foreign policy influenced by changing global alliances and leadership styles. Trump's emphasis on unilateral action offers both opportunities and challenges for U.S. leadership.
Global South Leadership
Economic leverage and transactional diplomacy reinforce American dominance but raise concerns about long-term diplomatic stability. Future administrations should evaluate these strategies for sustainable outcomes. Trump's America First policy prompts questions about unilateral actions and U.S. credibility. Balancing economic strategies with collaborative diplomacy is essential, as increased influence may lead to isolationism. The future of U.S. leadership relies on combining boldness with strategic cooperation, aiming to build trust in a multipolar world. This could result in a fragmented global order, diminishing U.S. influence and fostering autonomous foreign policies in the Global South.
Consequently, incorporating perspectives from the Global South is crucial in current global diplomacy due to its growing influence and ability to offer unique and balanced perspectives. Exploring leadership styles in the Global South—encompassing regions such as Latin America, Africa, Asia, and the Middle East—reveals a distinct approach characterized by adaptive leadership, relational dynamics, resilience, and a focus on legitimacy through inclusion.
Leadership in the Global South is a masterclass in resilience, adaptability, and pragmatism. Leadership in emerging markets contrasts sharply with the rigid models of the Global North. It strikes a balance between tradition and innovation, addressing short-term needs while striving for long-term stability. Leaders in these environments prioritize relationships and community engagement, differing from top-down approaches, such as those employed by President Trump. In the Global South, a blend of formal and informal governance allows leaders to develop diverse solutions to their challenges.
Effective leadership in the Global South emphasizes legitimacy through community inclusion, focusing on earning power rather than merely wielding it. This adaptability is exemplified by historical figures like Roosevelt, who navigated complex socio-political landscapes with pragmatic policy shifts. Leadership in these regions represents a blend of contrasts and creativity, finding harmony in chaos, building strength from fragility, and transforming challenges into opportunities. This approach is a survival strategy with valuable lessons for the rest of the world.
Bruno S. Sergi, PhD, teaches and researches the economics of emerging markets. At Harvard, he is a Faculty Affiliate at the Harvard Center for International Development, an Associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, and an Associate at the Harvard University Asia Center. He is the editor of Cambridge Elements in the Economics of Emerging Markets, Cambridge University Press. Co-author of Leadership in the Global South in the Elements series on emerging economies by Cambridge University Press (December 2024).
Dr. Mona Pearl teaches international business, particularly regarding its economic, geopolitical, social, and cultural aspects across borders and cultures. Her research explores the relationship between multicultural leadership and individual differences in navigating global environments. She has worked with corporations, governments, NGOs, and emerging market ventures on a global scale, forging strategic structures for initiatives worldwide. She is the c o-author of Leadership in the Global South, in the Elements series on emerging economies, by Cambridge University Press (December 2024) and a contributor in a book series on sustainable development goals series with a focus on the Global South and the Global North by Springer Nature (March 2025).
The "Time and Tide" Map of the United Nations (MacDonald Gill).
The work is in the public domain.
